Expert: Evgeniy Shchepelin – co-owner of Eshopmedia, e-commerce expert.
If we talk about the results of 2023, I can note the following areas:
1. Russian marketplaces competition does not subside; on the contrary, I am sure that MegaMarket’s aggressive cashback will show a 3-4 times increase in GMV compared to the result of 22 years. MegaMarket will be in the TOP in terms of growth dynamics, although in absolute terms the gap from the top two will be very large. Perhaps they will be in the top 3 at the end of the year.
2. The growth of leaders will also be higher than expectations at the beginning / middle of the year. WB and Ozon will again exceed 100% YoY growth. Together, WB and Ozon will take over 10% of the country’s commodity market (RUB 5+ trillion).
3. The pick-up points of ecom leaders will exceed the number of retail outlets of offline leaders. Evolution from “Logistics = Marketing Advantage” to “Logistics = New Retail”.
4. The D2C model is under intense pressure from marketplaces and until a leader has been identified in the market, they will continue to lose share.
5. Retail Media (advertising on marketplaces) will exceed the volume of TV for the first time and will become one of the most promising marketing tools.
I will list the key, in my opinion, trends that will determine the development of the market in 2024:
1. The audience is over, I expect the first year of decline in the growth dynamics of marketplaces in the GMV turnover metric. Perhaps we will see consolidation of players in the market.
2. Instead of an aggressive pursuit of the number of clients, all Russian marketplaces will shift to the growth of products per client and new ways to monetize the audience.
3. It will become more difficult and expensive to attract an audience. Retail Media will become the dominant advertising channel with growth of 1.5 - 2 times compared to 2023.
4. We will see a twofold increase in the number of pickup points.
5. Fintech products from large marketplaces will also show multiple growth, but in 2024, marketplaces will not yet become the base bank for a buyer or supplier.
6. Large niche players specializing in their expertise in the category will continue to grow, against the backdrop of declining trust in the quality of goods and suppliers on large marketplaces.
7. For such large niche players, the idea of an offline presence will become attractive.
8. Ecosystems will continue to compete for audience attention and will continue to increase the number of products per customer. Customers will be subjected to even greater pressure from different offers, just like in the days of spam. In 2024, a customer will not be aware of all the products and subscriptions they have.
