Over the past four months, global container shipping rates have nearly doubled due to disruptions on maritime routes through the Suez Canal, according to Kommersant. Companies are looking for alternative routes. Let’s analyze the changes in the market.
Global trends
Around 80% of global trade is carried by sea, and from 1983 to 2022 container trade grew by 7% annually, according to a UN report. The share of container shipping in dry cargo trade reached 23%, while its share of all cargo stood at 16%, Sberbank notes.
The Asia-Pacific region leads the market, accounting for more than 70% of all shipments, according to Upply data. Intra-Asian shipping ranks first by volume, followed by routes from Asia to North America and Europe. Shipments in the Middle East and Africa are also growing rapidly.
New routes and rising costs
Problems are being observed not only in the Suez Canal but also in the Panama Canal due to drought, which is causing delays, RBC reports.
The Northern Sea Route is a promising alternative, as it reduces delivery times between Asia and Europe despite climate-related limitations. China plans to use this route more actively starting in 2025, Logirus writes.
Another option is the route via the Cape of Good Hope and Cape Horn, although it increases delivery time by 20 days and raises costs by 50–100%, according to Rossiyskaya Gazeta.
According to Upply forecasts, a large-scale shift to these routes will only be possible if major operators adopt a coordinated strategy.
In the search for new solutions, companies are seeking to balance costs with optimized logistics routes, which will shape the future development of the container shipping market.